Should I reinvest a maturing gilt into a new gilt or a money market fund?

You're right that short-term rates could tick up. The Middle East conflict has pushed energy prices higher, and some forecasters think the Bank of England base rate could climb to 4.5% if energy costs stay elevated through 2026 and into 2027. So your instinct isn't wrong for the near term.

But zoom out to 2029 and the picture shifts. The OBR projects the base rate declining to around 3.5% by 2029, and the BoE's own August 2025 guidance pointed to gradual reductions through 2027 and 2028. In other words, today's elevated rates may not last to maturity.

And that's exactly the point. Whether you pick the 2029 gilt

or an MMF, you're making a concentrated bet on where rates land at a specific moment in time. If the economic backdrop shifts, you're locked in.

A diversified

fund holding gilts, bonds, and equities of varying maturities spreads that timing risk across dozens of instruments and dates. No single maturity event determines your outcome. For most investors, that's a more resilient approach than trying to call the rate cycle correctly twice in three years.