Is Resource Nationalism the Biggest Investment Trend of 2026?
Written by Boring Money
4 Feb, 2026
Resource nationalism is reshaping global commodity markets as governments prioritise control over strategic materials rather than relying on open markets. Trump's interventions in Iran and Venezuela, plus interest in Greenland's minerals, reflect this shift. Gold has surged 74% as central banks doubled purchases to over 1,000 tonnes annually, diversifying from US treasuries. Mining stocks remain undervalued despite commodity gains, with institutional exposure near all-time lows. Meanwhile, AI data centres and renewable energy are driving demand for copper, aluminium, and lithium as critical materials become matters of national security. Fund managers see further upside potential, though unpredictable policy interventions create both opportunities and risks for investors.
Since the start of 2025, Donald Trump's foreign policy activities have had a clear theme: natural resources. His threats on Iran and intervention in Venezuela are motivated by oil, while Greenland's abundant natural resources, including rare earth minerals, uranium and iron are likely to have been a factor in his attempts to acquire it.
What is Resource Nationalism and Why Does it Matter?
Resource nationalism - whereby governments aim to assert control over natural resources rather than simply buying them on open markets – has become a feature of global markets. Globalisation is fading, and in a more fractious world, governments want to ensure they have unfettered access to strategic commodities.
There are a variety of implications for investors. Perhaps the most significant impact so far has been seen in the precious metals markets. Fracturing global relationships and tense geopolitics have left investors scurrying to safe haven assets such as gold. The gold price is up almost 74% in a year, though its strength has wobbled since the end of January.
Why Central Banks Are Stockpiling Gold
The rally in the gold price has been driven by worries over the Dollar, but there have been other, more tangible reasons for its strength. Global governments have traditionally held significant chunks of their reserves in US treasuries. However, this is now a more dangerous trade as the US has become a less reliable ally. They have sought to diversify their reserves into areas such as gold and other precious metals. Central banks doubled their gold buying to more than 1,000 tonnes a year in the three years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
This has helped shore up the gold price, and there are now signs that this is spreading to other precious metals. China has been adding gold to its strategic reserves for some time, but is now broadening its exposure with copper and silver.
The gold price rise has been driven by a number of factors including currency aversion, due to high and increasing debt to GDP levels, geopolitical risk and financial market uncertainty. The debt to GDP ratio has passed 100% in several major economies: US, UK, Italy, France, Canada with interest payments on the debt rising now that interest rates are no longer close to zero.
The prices of a number of industrial metals and minerals rose in 2025, including copper and aluminium and we saw an apparent shift where critical raw materials are increasingly being viewed as a matter of national security. When we look at the fundamentals, on the demand side, the focus on the large power requirements of AI data centres and the critical raw materials necessary for today's technologies have been important factors.
Mining Stocks: An Undervalued Opportunity?
All these factors are still in place, and in spite of some triple digit gains for collective funds focused on this part of the market in 2026, many managers still see further potential gains in the year ahead. George Lequime, manager of the Amati Strategic Metals fund, points out that the share prices for mining companies have continued to lag the gains in the commodities themselves.
He adds that there is also a potential wave of new buyers:
The exposure of generalist and institutional investors to the mining sector still remains near all-time lows, which suggests that mining-related equities could rally much further, should commodity prices remain at current levels, or should they continue to move higher.
The latest data from the World Gold Council shows investment demand for gold surged 84% in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Energy Markets: Trump's Oil Strategy and Investment Implications
The other implications of US policy could be for the energy market. The incursions into Iran and Venezuela have been seen as attempts by the Trump administration to bring new sources of oil supply on stream. If Trump can depress the oil price, it would help with any looming inflation problems ahead of the crucial mid-term elections in November.
However, for investors, the calculations are slightly different. US oil companies have already made it clear that they are not keen to get involved in Venezuela.
We have a very long history in Venezuela. In fact, we first got into Venezuela back in the 1940s. We've had our assets seized there twice. And so, you can imagine to re enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we've historically seen here and what is currently the state. If we look at the legal and commercial constructs—frameworks—in place today in Venezuela, today it's uninvestable.
The world has been facing a glut of oil supply over the past two years, as new production comes on stream in Guyana, Canada, Norway, and the US. In addition, OPEC began adding back previously curtailed production and this put downward pressure on oil prices. The Brent oil price ended 2025 17.7% in USD. Despite oil prices moving lower, energy equities were supported by continuing geopolitical risks and strong oil demand and refining margins.
Will US Incursions Actually Lower Oil Prices?
A lower oil price does not incentivise investment, so even if the US manages to secure more friendly governments in Iran and Venezuela, it is not clear that they will have any immediate impact on supply. Ultimately, the impact of these incursions on US inflation is likely to be negligible.
Most mining specialist fund managers continue to favour precious metals over energy. The CQS Natural Resources Growth & Income trust, for example, still holds some energy companies, but believes there is more to go for in precious metals.
The Energy Transition: Copper, Aluminium and the AI Boom
A final consideration is the global shift to renewable energy. While this hasn't been a priority for the Trump administration, other governments remain committed to investment. This is creating demand for a range of commodities, including higher conductivity metals and building materials.
We are positive on the outlook for industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminium, where we see demand as supportive. Renewables and power and grid related investment, have become increasingly important and larger drivers of demand for these.
The build out of data centres is also creating demand for certain metals. A typical AI data centre may need around 50,000 tonnes of copper, given the wiring and the cooling, and ancillary equipment that is necessary to power and cool them. Battery storage is also becoming more important, and that creates demand for commodities such as lithium.
What This Means for Investors in Natural Resources
Access to critical raw materials is increasingly a matter of national security. This has implications for global commodities markets and is already being felt in the prices of specific commodities. However, government meddling can have unpredictable consequences, and while it has given a boost to some areas, it has been a drag on others. Investors need to tread carefully.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the gold price rising? Gold has risen due to geopolitical tensions, concerns about the weakening dollar, and central banks doubling their gold purchases to over 1,000 tonnes annually. Major economies, including the US, UK, Italy, France, and Canada, now have debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%, driving demand for safe haven assets.
What is resource nationalism? Resource nationalism is when governments aim to assert direct control over natural resources rather than simply buying them on open markets. As globalisation fades, countries want to ensure unfettered access to strategic commodities like rare earth minerals, uranium, copper and oil.
Should I invest in mining stocks? Mining stocks remain undervalued compared to commodity prices, with share prices lagging the gains in precious metals themselves. Institutional exposure to mining remains near all-time lows, suggesting potential for further rallies. Investment demand for gold surged 74% in 2025, yet mining equities haven't kept pace.
How does AI affect commodity demand? AI data centres require massive amounts of copper—a typical facility needs around 50,000 tonnes for wiring, cooling and ancillary equipment. Combined with renewable energy infrastructure and battery storage requirements, this is driving substantial demand for copper, aluminium and lithium.
What are critical raw materials? Critical raw materials include rare earth minerals, copper, lithium, aluminium, uranium, and iron—commodities essential for modern technologies, AI infrastructure, and energy transition. Governments increasingly view access to these materials as a matter of national security, reshaping global commodity markets.
Post a comment:
This is an open discussion and does not represent the views of Boring Money. We want our communities to be welcoming and helpful. Spam, personal attacks and offensive language will not be tolerated. Posts may be deleted and repeat offenders blocked at our discretion.
